NXT-007

Roche’s pharma business delivered a 7% year-over-year sales growth in the first quarter at constant exchange rates but a 4% decline on a reported basis. Editor’s Note: The original version of the story was based on consensus estimates cited by ODDO BHF. We’ve updated the story throughout based on Visible Alpha consensus data cited by UBS and Kepler Cheuvreux. The surging Swiss franc has hindered Roche, as its first-quarter sales fell slightly short of Wall Street expectations.  Roche’s pharma business posted a 7% year-over-year sales increase in the first quarter at constant exchange rates, hauling in 11.5 billion Swiss francs ($14.6 billion). But this belies a different picture—on a reported basis, the division’s sales dropped 4%, suggesting a massive 11-percentage-point negative impact from currencies.The sales result missed analysts’ expectations by 1%, according to Visible Alpha data cited by Kepler Cheuvreux and UBS. But as Kepler Cheuvreux pointed out in an April 23 note, bankers had likely modeled their projections based on Roche’s previous expectation of a 9-point currency headwind. The company’s underlying business, as Kepler Cheuvreux put it, remained “solid” in Q1, with what the team at UBS described as a “mix of beats and misses” across key products.Roche’s closely watched new eye med, Vabysmo, for example, grew sales by 13% at unchanged exchange rates, reaching 1.02 billion Swiss francs. The first-quarter number missed consensus by about 1%.Still recovering from an overall market contraction for branded biologics, Vabysmo saw a “return to growth” in the U.S., Teresa Graham, CEO of Roche Pharmaceuticals, said on an investor call Thursday. The med enjoyed low double-digit volume growth as part of “a steady market share expansion,” she said.For now, “they are only the first signs” of a recovery in the market, Graham added. Meanwhile, multiple sclerosis drug Ocrevus and the hemophilia A treatment Hemlibra—Roche’s top 2 best-selling pharmaceuticals—are both under competitive pressures from Novartis’ Kesimpta and Sanofi/Sobi’s Altuviiio, respectively. But the two meds performed differently during the quarter, in analysts’ eyes. Ocrevus’ haul of 1.7 billion Swiss francs missed analysts’ expectations by 4%. Graham cited a negative impact in the U.S. from payer dynamics that are typical in Q1 and fewer sales days compared with the prior year.Countering Kesimpta’s at-home administration advantage, Roche recently rolled out a subcutaneous version of Ocrevus, which is administered by a healthcare professional. As a result, Roche updated its peak sales expectations for Ocrevus to 9 billion Swiss francs by 2029 to include 2 billion Swiss francs in incremental sales from the under-the-skin formulation. By comparison, Hemlibra beat analysts’ consensus by 4%, generating 1.2 billion Swiss francs in Q1.Graham pointed out that around 30% of patients who went to Sanofi/Sobi’s extended-half-life factor VIII treatment ended up switching back to the Roche drug. “I think what it boils down to is that patients who are on Hemlibra have an incredibly high satisfaction with their therapy,” Graham said.That said, Roche does expect increased competition in the back half of the year. And the company is investing in a phase 3 Hemlibra head-to-head trial for its next-generation NXT007.Moving to Roche’s immunology portfolio, Xolair was the key growth driver, posting a 26% sales increase in the U.S. at constant exchange rates to $708 million. “Exceptionally strong uptake” in the food allergy indication and continued expansion in chronic hives fueled the growth, Graham said.Despite an expected biosimilar entry in the second half of the year, Roche still expects around 20% sales growth for Xolair this year. Also chipping in for Roche’s immunology portfolio is Gazyva, which had been exclusively a blood cancer therapy until an October FDA nod in lupus nephritis changed that. The anti-CD20 antibody brought in 247 million Swiss francs in Q1 sales, although its 10% rise at constant currencies still missed consensus by 9%, making it one of the biggest disappointments in Roche’s Q1 report. The drug’s sales in the U.S. and EU were pulled back by AstraZeneca’s launch of the fixed-duration combo of Calquence and Venclexta in first-line chronic lymphocytic leukemia, Graham said. But on the lupus front, the Roche exec highlighted “positive feedback from doctors and patients, including awareness, intent to treat and treatment satisfaction.”Given the diverging market dynamics, Roche plans to report Gazyva sales separately between the indications, with Graham stressing that the company remains confident that Gazyva could add 2 billion Swiss francs in peak annual sales across immunology indications.In Roche’s Q1 report, the flu med Xofluza saw the biggest gap between sales and Street’s projections. The drug recorded 19 million Swiss francs in sales, 83% below consensus. The flu season hit early in the fourth quarter of 2025, and a high comparator the same period last year together caused the weak result, Graham explained. All told, assuming exchange rates hold steady for the rest of 2026, Roche expects currencies to cause a 4% drag on its full-year sales. But on a constant exchange rates basis, the Swiss pharma on Thursday confirmed its full-year guidance of a mid-single-digit sales increase across the group. Roche's shares were up 3.5% midday Thursday.