Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical and Mereo BioPharma’s antibody for a rare bone disease failed a second interim analysis in its pivotal trial, the companies
revealed
late on Wednesday. The study will continue until its final analysis, which is expected at the end of this year.
Investors had been expecting success. Ultragenyx’s stock
$RARE
was down 22% and Mereo’s
$MREO
value slipped 36% before trading opened Thursday.
The Phase 3 portion of the Orbit study is testing setrusumab, formerly called UX143, in children and young adults with osteogenesis imperfecta, a genetic condition where collagen is missing or reduced, rendering patients’ bones weak and prone to fracture. The drug inhibits a protein called sclerostin, which negatively affects bone formation.
The 159-patient Phase 3 is attempting to show that patients on setrusumab have fewer fractures than patients given placebo, although the primary endpoint excludes breaks of the fingers, toes, face and skull.
The trial
missed
an earlier interim analysis in January, but that had been widely expected since patients had only been taking the drug for six to eight months, and the statistical threshold was very high at a p-value of 0.001.
The threshold for the second analysis was much lower, at p=0.01, and trial subjects had been taking the drug for a further six months or so. But Orbit’s data monitoring committee said that while setrusumab’s safety was “acceptable,” significance had not been achieved at this point.
The disappointment is all the greater considering setrusumab’s
performance
in the Phase 2 part of Orbit. The companies said then that the drug cut the median annualized rate of fractures by 67% in 24 patients after around 16 months, with a p-value of 0.0014.
However, the Phase 2 portion
did not have a placebo group
. Instead, the comparator was the figure in the same patients in the two years before they started treatment. Comparisons with historical data are much less scientifically robust than using a placebo or other control group.
Mereo previously said that a similar treatment effect as the mid-stage study would have supported the second Phase 3 interim analysis being met, Leerink analysts wrote in a Wednesday note. The companies attributed the miss to variability among the subjects, whose annualized fracture rate ranges from 0.5 to more than 3.0, they added. The age range of patients (5-25 years old) may also play a role.
The interim analyses were added to the Phase 3 part of Orbit after the Phase 2 fracture rate was reported, in the hope of getting a significant improvement at an earlier time point, speeding up development.
“At the time, this seemed like a prudent move; however, we now acknowledge that this has added an unnecessary level of complexity and raised expectations from an investor standpoint,” the Leerink analysts wrote.
The p-value threshold for the final analysis is less stringent at 0.04, and the companies told the Leerink analysts that a fracture rate reduction of between 30% to 50% would be clinically meaningful. However, anything less than the 67% seen in Phase 2 might come as another disappointment to shareholders.
According to Cowen analysts, the partners will likely miss out on a priority review voucher, as the drug would have to be approved by Sept. 30, 2026, to be eligible.
Setrusumab is in another Phase 3 study, named Cosmic, which has enrolled 69 patients. This is comparing setrusumab to intravenous bisphosphonate therapy in children ages 2-7, and will report at a similar time to Orbit.
Under its partnership with Ultragenyx, Mereo could receive additional milestone payments of up to $245 million, as well as royalties in Ultragenyx territories should the drug reach market. Mereo has kept EU and UK commercial rights and will pay Ultragenyx royalties in those areas.
Editor’s note: The headline of this story was updated to reflect that the trial will continue to a final analysis.